Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
